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Guide Konjunkturindikatoren und deren Entwicklung im Vorfeld der Finanzkrise von 2007 (German Edition)

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Read Free For 30 Days. The data herein may not be disseminated in any form without prior written permission of the IMF Original Title: glossaryg. Just as the Fed started raising the risk-free rate, US corporates abandoned dollar liquidity. What did US corporates do? Step 3: US corporate buybacks soar, the first twist. The bulk of corporate repatriation was deployed in equity buybacks. To the extent that US corporate dollar liquidity was sitting unused in short-dated assets, this deployment of cash constitutes one of the largest risk transfers in the history of financial markets.

Step 4: Pension funds rotate from equities to bonds, the second twist. Our fixed income colleagues have documented the pension fund rotation dynamic well. US pensions are over-weight equities and stock out-performance this year has led to large liquidation of their holdings, in turn deployed into long-dated US bonds. This buying can best be seen in the record-breaking size of stripped treasuries, the preferred habitat of US pension funds. The surprising yield curve flatness this year can be mainly attributed to the pension phenomenon representing a price-insensitive removal of fixed income duration from the market equivalent to Fed QE.

This risk is now balanced, and can turn into a positive impact, i. For instance, if the market were to hold its gains during the day, it could result in a squeeze higher by end of the day from gamma hedging flows. The remaining part of systematic selling is from volatility targeting insurance, parity funds, etc.

JPMorgan: The dip should be bought Equities suffered a sharp pullback this week, very similar to the February flash crash experience. Technology and Cyclicals lagged, while Value and Defensives performed better. Regionally, US fell as much as the other markets. Ahead of the February equity selloff, bond yields spiked, and the same was repeated this time again. Our Global Equity Strategists have argued last month that bond yields were bound to break out higher, but beyond knee-jerk initial volatility, they think that the inverse bonds-equities correlation will continue to hold.

In this way, bond yields act as a cushion for stocks. The unwind of momentum strategies played an important role, too. Similar to February, our strategists believe that the dip should be bought. They are still bearish on UK domestic plays, but think the time is coming to add to them, once the Brexit deal is signed off. However, the indirect impact via dampened business sentiment and delays in investment could be large. In addition, a protracted trade war raises risks of disruption or restructuring of the global supply chain in the coming years and the risk of a broader pullback in global confidence.

We expect the Chinese government will react with a modestly larger CNY depreciation and additional fiscal and monetary policy support to keep growth at 6. In particular, we expect augmented fiscal deficit will increase by 0. Global Equity Strategy View Trade uncertainty, in particular the US-China leg, is one of the key overhangs for investor sentiment, but despite this, we are constructive on global equities into year end. Investor complacency has evaporated, with most now fully expecting the trade backdrop to get worse before it can get any better. The bar for a positive surprise is therefore much lower currently.

We had entered the year with a cautious view on EM equities which was very non-consensus at the time but have upgraded in the summer. Another key regional tilt we have is to remain OW US vs European equities within developed markets despite what is an already significant European underperformance. There is very limited visibility on future trade developments, but we note that the latest developments on the US-Canada-Mexico trade negotiations were encouraging.

Finally, seasonals are turning positive now for stocks. Regardless of what happens at the G20 meeting on Nov 30, the bilateral relationship is unlikely to return to the pre-trade-war mode. Even if the two sides agree to avoid escalation for now, the bilateral relationship will likely stay under stress in coming years, with risk on the downside.

The extensive news coverage in the past week with reference to a "new cold war" is a clear sign of such risk. This political development puts US business interests in China at a disadvantaged position for the coming years. China has so far refrained from hurting US business interests in China, but this does not mean they will do so under all circumstances. The political pressure from the US will likely weigh in as well, as evidenced by the questions Google received about Project Dragonfly at a US Senate hearing on Sept This makes BMW the first foreign car maker to own a majority share in a joint venture in China.

The statement shows many positive signals for bilateral economic relations. Two interesting issues stand out: 1 The statement shows high expectation for the free trade agreements being negotiated in the Asia Pacific region. For many others such as airplanes, China is the second largest but widely expected to become the first in the foreseeable future. The US China trade war will lead to a further opening up of the market to foreign firms, as evidenced by the BMW deal. The strategic position in this market is critical for multinationals' performance in the next ten years.

The tariff war has not affected them so far. Our Global Equity strategists believe that the inverse bonds-stocks prices correlation will not break down. Indeed, the correlation normalized very quickly which, in their view, will act as an automatic cushion for the market. For the recession to become a base case, one needs to see a sharp deterioration in the labor market. The recent sell-off is similar to the one in February with technicals largely driving the market lower.

Investors were already positioned defensively before this correction; this leaves more room for an easier bounce back led by mega-cap cyclical and secular growth helping lift the market higher. We find the current equity multiple attractive at only Stocks are down a lot but long rates have barely moved? The consensus outlook is still that growth will be 2.

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The earnings outlook is strong, ISM is strong, employment growth is strong, wage and income and hence topline growth are trending higher, and the Fed is sending signals that several more rate hikes are coming. In other words, the imbalances in the housing market are much smaller than in The bottom line is that the ongoing correction in the stock market does not seem to be driven by fundamentals or a change in the outlook for fundamentals.

We remain bullish on the US economic outlook, but some downside risks are beginning to appear from capex. And it remains to be seen if the recent capex slowdown is temporary or driven by more permanent worries such as the trade war. In the near term, there are some downside risks to ISM and headline nonfarm payrolls later this week, but we still expect more upward pressure on wages. The increase in the supply of Treasuries is attracting dollars that would otherwise have gone into IG, Loans, HY, mortgages, etc. With trillion dollar deficits continuing the risks are rising that there will not be enough dollars for risky assets given the enormous increase in the stock of risk-free assets yielding a higher return as the Fed continues to raise rates.

In particular in a situation where global QE is coming to an end. In sum, the supply of risk-free fixed income is growing and demand for fixed income is shrinking. This all points to higher rates and wider credit spreads. At a sector level, Cyclicals are bouncing versus the Defensives, with Miners strongly outperforming in both the US and in Europe. Positioning has become very negative and VIX has produced a buy signal. The sentiment over the China outlook, and the global cycle prospects, is too bearish, in their view.

The compromise on trade gets more likely as US equities are not decoupling from global anymore. Chinese policy response is stepping up and should be evident in dataflow from October. The summer underperformance of Miners is overdone in their view, and they argued one should be buying into the sector. Finally, our strategists note that there are important benefits of owning Miners at this stage of the cycle.

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Inflation is moving higher and Miners are a good hedge. Today is the NYC marathon, and it is relevant to ask the question if the US economy is on a sugar high. The answer is no. The structural underpinnings of the US economy are very strong. To stay in the medical world improving oxygen intake, uptake, and assimilation is critical as an inhibitor to disease and decay. Put differently, the US economy is better than any other economy in the world at converting labor and capital inputs into products and services and ultimately household income.

Specifically, in the US it is easier to fire and hire workers, there is more competition in product markets, and much less red tape for businesses. This brings us to an underlying US growth rate of 2. Try to compare that with any other G7 country, including Europe. The bottom line is that growth is not driven by fiscal and monetary policy.

Fiscal and monetary policy can temporarily boost or slow growth. From this perspective, the US economy is the world leader. In short, enjoy the marathon, the US economy remains the most competitive economy in the world. Two competing narratives There are two competing narratives in markets at the moment with very different investment implications. The first narrative is the story that economic growth is strong and earnings are good, and the consensus expects this to continue as the tailwind from the corporate tax cut continues.

The second narrative in markets is the story that global QE is coming to an end and the US is issuing a lot more Treasuries, which taken together means less demand for global fixed income and much more supply of risk-free assets, which overall means less appetite among investors for buying risky assets. The investment implications of this is higher short rates, higher long rates, wider IG credit spreads, wider HY spreads, and lower equities.

Looking ahead we and the Fed and consensus continue to see robust above-trend GDP growth for the coming quarters with the Fed hiking rates five more times before the end of And we see long rates moving up to 3. As long as inflation remains contained and growth is solid equities will do well. But IG credit is more vulnerable because it has acted as a substitute for Treasuries for many foreigners who now are faced with significantly higher hedging costs.

The bottom line is that we see volatility higher, rates gradually higher, credit spreads gradually wider, and equities higher. But with core PCE inflation already at 2. Which would imply a more volatile period for markets, in particular for fixed income, as investors begin to price inflation risk premia in ways we have not seen for the past decade. And the risk to the economic narrative is not a recession but instead overheating and an associated overshoot in inflation.

We believe out of consensus that a split Congress is the best outcome for US and global equity markets. Policies of the US administration in were strongly pro-business we pointed that out in However, in , policies of the US administration were strongly anti-business trade war, protectionism, subsidies, etc. Lower oil prices is good news macro impact of lower oil and higher dollar. Late cycle worries are misplaced, lower oil prices will extend the economic expansion further because it is good news for consumers and for energy-consuming companies.

And a higher dollar will be holding down US inflation at a time when the economy is close to overheating. In sum, lower oil prices and a higher dollar is exactly what the doctor ordered for the US economy if you want the expansion to continue and the Fed to be gradual. Outside the UK, our Strategists continue to prefer US vs Europe equities, where the US remains well supported by record buybacks and the strong earnings delivery. Q3 results have improved meaningfully since the start of the season, in both the US and in Europe.

Despite noise around trade and macro weakness, the reporting season was overall relatively upbeat, with greater than typical share of companies revising guidance higher. This year, Value has badly underperformed in all regions.

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They argued that US Banks could benefit if the Fed were to turn somewhat more dovish. This would steepen the US yield curve, in their view, as the market would then price out the probability that the Fed is making a policy mistake in overtightening. US Banks performance has historically been closely aligned to the move in bond yields, but the gap has opened up since March, as the market became increasingly concerned about the flattening of the yield curve.

In addition, Banks stocks in the US should be supported by strong buybacks, next only to the Tech sector. On the other side, our strategists remain cautious on European Banks. These have strongly underperformed the broader market and look cheap; however, the sector is unlikely to sustainably rebound as long as peripheral spreads remain elevated. The market multiple is near 5-year lows seen at the time of the last two major growth scares, with broad-based multiple compression across sectors that was concentrated in the cyclical sectors. A lot is now priced in, with a variety of measures ranging from indicating a sharp slowing in macro growth to a high probability of recession.

With our outlook holding up remarkably well over the past year, we take a look towards and beyond. Risks to this "extraordinary" outlook remain, but we now find ourselves expecting the current expansion, which is set to become the longest on record next year, to continue for several years to come. These tweaks come at a time when the consensus and market pricing are moving in the opposite direction, with growing expectations of a recession.

Our growth forecast has edged lower by a tenth, mostly due to the front-loading of tighter financial conditions and some slowing in global growth momentum. The most meaningful revision to our outlook comes in , however, where we have lifted our forecast by half a percent to 1. Our first look at sees growth slowing further to 1. Perhaps the most extraordinary feature of this expansion is continued impressive labor market performance coupled with modest inflation pressures. We expect the former to continue in , with the 3. Wage pressures should continue to firm, reducing concerns about a wage puzzle.

But as growth slips below potential beyond, the unemployment rate should drift higher, reaching 3. Core inflation is still expected to rise above the Fed's target next year, though the magnitude of this overshoot is more modest. Recent softer inflation data, the lagged effects of dollar strength, and some downside risk from a weaker profile for health care inflation should help to offset some of the tailwind from a tight labor market. Core PCE inflation is now expected to rise to 2. With the labor market beyond full employment and inflation slightly above the Fed's target, we still expect the Fed to move to a restrictive stance in , but the path to that point has changed.

We now anticipate three rate hikes in , with the Fed taking a break, or pause, from their gradual quarterly pace of tightening most likely in Q3. That should be followed by one last rate increase in , leaving our terminal rate for this cycle unchanged at 3. Balance sheet unwind, which has been on autopilot to this point, could reach its endpoint in late Euro Stand Ende Juni Die Erste Group Bank hat heuer ihre beiden Kapitalanlagegesellschaften verschmolzen.

In Europa sei "die Situation sehr spannend", weil man dabei sei, "das Medikament Nullzinspolitik zu beenden", sagte Permoser. Das Wort in Gottes Ohr No need to worry The human mind feels most comfortable if there is a logic to what is going on in the world. This is also the case for investors in markets. We need a story, and markets get anxious if there are too many unquantifiable signals and no clear signs of a consistent narrative. At the moment things are complicated.

The US economic data is strong so that is good news. But global QE is ending, US Treasury supply is rising, and hedging costs are higher for foreigners buying assets in the US, and these forces are lifting vol and widening credit spreads. And we have a trade war that is coming and going. And oil prices are falling and the dollar is going up.

And to top it all off, we have the unquantifiable force of populism rising everywhere. No wonder the market finds comfort in the yield curve as a signal about what is going on. It is an easy and simple story. A better and more meaningful place to look for logic as an investor is the economic data. That is what the Fed does.

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The incoming data continues to be good, and the consensus continues to expect solid GDP and earnings growth for the coming six quarters see also the Bloomberg screenshot in my daily note yesterday. If you look at the economic data we see a clear story: We will not have a recession anytime soon. We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. We do accept, however, that markets are in a state of flux at the moment with market illiquidity exacerbating market moves. Normal ist Koks A that delivered trivial gains or even losses would still leave the average of the past two years respectable.

But, where wages lead, prices typically follow. The ECB has drawn attention to the relationship between compensation per employee in services and inflation in services in the euro area. Compensation per employee in the private sector in the services rose by 2. Even with the recovery seemingly losing momentum, this will very likely be seen by the ECB as confirmation of the Phillips curve kicking in and wages responding.

A country breakdown shows compensation per employee growing at the second highest rate on record since in Germany 3. Which brings us to the UK. But, as with many other decisions at the moment, they will be on hold, waiting to see how all the drama in Parliament plays out. The WSJ report that China is rewriting its policy and considering SOE competitive neutrality suggests that real talk on tough sticking points is forthcoming.

This challenges the view that more escalation from here is needed before the tension is resolved. But for US equities, this reinforces a range-bound path: less downside, but also less upside having not priced in trade escalation. Details are too sparse to conclude that a trade deal is near, but this could mean reduced chances of escalation beyond March 1. Either China is serious about amending its industrial policies, or it is at least willing to change their optics while conceding on other points i.

This might not satisfy hardliners, but the unconventional, and perhaps unintentional, escalation since the G20 Huawei, iPhone rulings, etc. That said there was one surprise and that was the suggestion that the ECB is starting to rethink the structural impact of negative deposit rates on the banking system. However, concerns over the global growth outlook remain acute, with further weakness in the Eurozone PMIs and uninspiring Chinese data. EM equities are continuing to stabilize vs DM. Fast forward to present, where growth fears are again in full swing, but Fed might be turning more dovish, EM FX is up for tree months in a row and Chinese FAI is bouncing.

In a sense, some slowing in US growth at this stage should not be seen as a negative, but should take the edge off the USD, the Fed and the risk of further trade escalation. Our strategists were cautious on EM entering , but now believe EM should outperform in Within DM, they stay OW US and relatively more cautious on Europe, due to weaker earnings prospects and the continued political uncertainty. Man befinde sich nun am Ende einer langen Aufschwungphase. Making Sense of the December Risk-off The US equity downdraft in December is not due primarily to a rise in market perceptions of tail risks or to a sharp dialing down of baseline growth expectations.

We think the reason is simpler: retail outflows have picked up sharply in December, unlike in the October sell-off. We believe that fundamentals should re-assert themselves over the medium term; at current levels, US equities are reasonably attractive for investors with a 6- to month horizon. US equities have taken another leg down in December, sparking a global risk-off. Usually, one of two reasons drives any such move: Investors have re-priced downwards their baseline for economic and earnings growth, Or markets are now pricing in a greater possibility of a tail risk materializing and are, hence, demanding more risk premia.

We do not subscribe to the view that the December risk-off is because investors have dialed up their forecast for a US recession. A recession is not a realistic probability in either recent data or our forecasts. Despite the rate rally, US bond markets are not seriously pricing in a recession, either.

Rather, they simply seem to be telling us that they believe the Fed hiking cycle is close to being finished. The volatility markets also support our view that the recent move is not due to panic among institutional investors. Instead, we believe that a sharp rise in retail outflows has been the main driver of the most recent move, with selling indiscriminate across sectors and styles. Record mutual fund outflows in recent weeks and extremes in retail sentiment on equities in October which were largely absent during the initial selloff support this narrative.

It is hard to step in the middle of the relentless selling and bearish sentiment of recent weeks, and also difficult to estimate when the outflows stop But we believe that the fundamentals should re-assert themselves sooner than later, which implies a move higher for US equities for investors with a 6- to month horizon. Bridgewater expects U. Forum Home Beitrag empfehlen. SieurKolou74 Antworten Mit Zitat antworten. Druckbare Anzeige. Warren Buffett Hagen MJS 0. Peter35 Investorenlegende warnt Anleger am RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anleger am RE: byronwien am RE: crash am Inverse VIX - how it works am Inflation ist alles am A healthy pullback am Fed implications of the employment report am CTAs and Risk Parity funds am Financial markets are all about stories am All the President's deficits am We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each in and am The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages am Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges Earnings am US Inflation am QE ending am Steve Schwarzman: The stock market's performance doesn't make sense if you look at the economy am US stock buybacks are running at a record pace am Our US Equity strategists remain positive am Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive am Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks am What perhaps stood out the most about the price action last week am RE: Trump am Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remind investors equities are still cheap vs cash or other asset classes am Debatte um Banken-Verluste am Rates markets are busy with the shape of the yield curve am Eroding the benefits of tax reform through America First policies am The last days of Whitney Tilsons Hedge Fund am Warren Buffett: Women make me 'very optimistic' about this country am JPM Equity strategists continue to see further upside in risky assets am The US reporting season has delivered strong earnings beats and surprises am Buffett warnt vor Bitcoin und lobt Apple am Das Warren Buffet Imperium grafisch dargestellt am Global equities remain in a consolidation mode am We remain positive on equities based on two strong fundamental drivers am Trump twittert: "Freue mich auf Arbeitsmarktbericht" am RE: Trump twittert: am Our Global equity strategists believe that the fundamental backdrop will remain resilient am ECB policy announcement a material negative for the euro am A yield curve inversion at the longer end also am Fed: This is not a consistent forecast am The tit-for-tat trade barbs intensify am Trade war tensions am Zwischencheck vor der Sommerpause am Trade war noch egal am Autos have never been this cheap am Economics: am Trade headlines driven dips as a buying opportunity am How strong is corporate activity?

Quantifying trade war is difficult am Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data am RE: Trade war impacting soft data but not hard data am RE: realDonaldTrump: und die Zinsen auch falsch am Our Global Equity strategists believe Q2 reporting season will reassure and deliver solid earnings beats am Our Global Equity strategists continue to have a constructive view on equities am Equity markets struggled this week despite strong earnings am Interessante Perspektive zu Handelskrieg am Earning season so far am US outlook bends but doesn't break as trade stakes rise am I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey am Investor sentiment appears to be quite cautious am A stock-market bear signal is at a more-thandecade high, says Goldman am Mining, Autos and Semiconductors are likely to bounce into year-end am Das Fed-Problem am Cyclicals will rebound am Nowotny, seufz am JPMorgan Says U.

Insurance sector as a hedge on rising yields am US-China tension and US equity selloff am Unfair to make comparisons between Italy and Greece am The am Update on Market Moves am JPMorgan: The dip should be bought am The direct impact of such a trade war is unlikely to be large on global growth am Global Equity Strategy View am Looming "cold war" will hurt US business in China am JPMorgan Global Equity strategists am Stocks are down a lot but long rates have barely moved am Crowding out?

VIX has produced a buy signal am US economy remains the most competitive economy in the world am Two competing narratives am Lower oil prices is good news am Will Value Come Back? Our Global equity strategists advised to add to US Banks am Tweaking an extraordinary US outlook: A look at and beyond am No need to worry am RE: No need to worry am RE: We maintain a positive stance in equities vs. US Equities in am RE: US Equities in am Extreme Fear am Re: Extreme fear am China is rewriting its policy am RE: China is rewriting its policy am ECB: there was one surprise am Equity markets arrested their decline this week am Making Sense of the December Risk-off am Neue lesen.

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Investorenlegende warnt Anleger. RE: Investorenlegende warnt Anleger. RE: byronwien. RE: crash. Inverse VIX - how it works. Inflation ist alles. A healthy pullback. Fed implications of the employment report. CTAs and Risk Parity funds. Die EZB werde die Zinsen heuer sicher nicht mehr anhebe All the President's deficits. Interest-Cost Surge on Yield, Deficit We continue to think the Fed will hike four times each The Q4 earnings season is in its final stages. Stocks as Tax Plan Supercharges US Inflation. QE ending. Steve Schwarzman: The stock market's performance doesn' US stock buybacks are running at a record pace.

Our US Equity strategists remain positive. Our Global Equity Strategists remain constructive. Oil has remained in range for the last six weeks. What perhaps stood out the most about the price action RE: Trump. Q1 reporting season that kicks off this week will remin Debatte um Banken-Verluste. Afsin Sahin, Mityakov, Cited by: Severin Bernhard, Zimmermann, Andrew K. Spiegel, Rose, Andrew K. Discussion Papers. Smith, Geoffrey Peter, Fondeur, Y.

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Evidence from traditional versus new monetary policy episodes ," Economic Modelling , Elsevier, vol. Soliman, Cipollina, M. Nitsch, Volker, Volker Nitsch, Felix Groba, Mireille S.


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